Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up by 5 plus cents following the USDA crop production and WASDE numbers. The USDA announced this morning a private export sale of 217,040 MT of corn to unknown for 19/20 delivery. That was icing on the cake. This morning’s NASS Crop Production report showed a 1.4 bpa reduction to the 2019 corn yield projection, taking it to 167 bpa. That dropped production to13.661 billion bushels, down 118 mbu from Oct. US ending stocks were cut 19 mbu by the USDA to 1.910 bbu as demand was also lowered. Shifting focus to the world numbers, world corn carryout was down 6.64 MMT from last month to 295.96 MMT.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.80 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.89 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.96 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.02 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down by as much as 5 1/2 cents for nearby contracts. Soybean meal is lower by $1.40/ton and soybean oil 31 points higher. The Crop Production report by NASS this morning showed that the 2019 bean yield projection remained at 46.9 bpa, whereas most analysts were expecting a small cut. The harvested acreage estimate for 2019/20 beans is 75.626 which is in line with Octobers forecast. The USDA left production at 3.550 billion bushels. US ending stocks were raised 15 mbu in the report (drop in crush), and are now projected at 475 bbu. Traders anticipated tightening stocks to 431. As for the world numbers, world bean carryout was above what analysts anticipated, adjusted up 2.2 MMT from last month to 95.42 MMT. A private export sale of 270,000 MT of soybeans were announced this morning, for unknown destinations and 19/20 MY delivery.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.19 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.33 1/2, down 3 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.46, down 2 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.57 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $304.20, down $1.40,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.74, up $0.31

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat Mixed at Midday

Friday wheat futures are mixed at midday, Kansas City wheats are fractionally lower, with Chicago down by as much 3 cents. MLPS wheat futures were higher after the report bu as much as 5 1/2 cents but currently fading. The WASDE reports from this morning showed a 29 mbu reduction to the 2019 US ending stocks, and are now forecasted to be 1014 bbu. USDA cut harvested acres by 900,000 after the re-survey. World Wheat ending stocks are bumped up 0.42 MMT over last month to 288.28 MMT. Analysts were expecting, on average, a reduction, so this came as a surprise to the market. The US accumulated exports through the first 22 weeks of the MY are 10.766 MMT, which is up 25.47% over last MY’s pace.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.13 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.25 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.23 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up by 35 cents to $119.35 at midday. Nearby feeder cattle futures are mixed at midday. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production is 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). So far the FEC online auction has 1684 head offered with 119 sold at $115 in KS. The 11/06 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 17 cents to $146.09. The weekly cattle slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 was 640,269 head, at an average dressed weight of 826 lbs. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD as of Thursday was 470,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.350, up $0.350,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $125.125, up $0.275,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.100, up $0.250,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.875, up $0.100

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.450, down $0.325

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.150, down $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are mixed so far this Friday, Basis firmed 27 cents yesterday as the CME Lean Hog Index dropped 20 cents, to $60.16 for 11/05. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was $2.10 higher this morning. The national average base hog price was unchanged at $45.21. This morning’s WASDE report updated 4th quarter pork production estimates to 7.46 billion lbs to bring the 2019 production to 27.620 billion lbs. USDA official weekly hog slaughter under federal inspection was 2,690,305 million head, at an average dressed weight of 213 lbs for the week ending 10/26. The week to date USDA estimated Hog slaughter is 1.895 million head

DEC 19 Hogs are at $64.325, up $0.025,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $73.625, down $0.150

APR 20 Hogs are at $79.900, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures have reversed direction at midday and are up by as much as 63 points at midday. Cotton yield was down 34 to 799 lbs per acre in the Crop Production report, 7.5% lower than last year. The ending stocks estimate was reduced to 6.1 million bales from 7 million in the October WASDE report. USDA’s world cotton ending stocks figure tightened to 80.8 million bales from 83.69 million in October. December cotton options expire today, the US dollar index is stronger. Cotton exports were 129,682 RB shipped. The Cotlook A Index for 11/7 was down by 25 points, to 74.70 cents/lb. The AWP is now 56.63 cents/lb, down 70 points from the previous week.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.8, up 45 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 66.67, up 63 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 67.92, up 57 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 69.06, up 52 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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