Dow Jones Futures - Nov 4 - 8, 2019
S&P 500 Futures - Nov 4 - 8, 2019
Nasdaq Futures - Nov 4 - 8, 2019
Monday - November 4, 2019
The market turmoil that rocked the end of 2018 led Wall Street to speculate that perhaps 2019 was not going to be the best year as most investors would have hoped. It turns out that the doom-and-gloomers missed the mark by a mile, as 2019 saw a continuation of the largest bull market in US history.
Also note that analysts may have been expecting less-than-stellar results for Q3 earnings as a record number of S&P 500 companies issued negative guidance heading into the beginning of the quarter. Year-over-year, many of the S&P 500 may be showing negative growth for the third consecutive quarter, but so far 76% of the companies that have reported have beat analyst expectations.
The US-China trade dispute and other geopolitical concerns continue to spook investors. But whatever concerns investors have, market performance seems to fly in the face of naysayers who continue to warn us that perhaps this might be the tail end of a spectacular bull run. Of course, a lot can happen between now and the end of 2019, but so far it appears as if 2019 may end up a year in which the wall of worry propelled the market into new record territory.
The Dow is just points away from setting new record highs, closing up 0.42% today at 27,462.11. The S&P 500 closed at 3,078.28, advancing 0.37%. The Nasdaq rose 0.56% to end the day at 8,433.20.
Tuesday - November 5
All three indexes--the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq--advanced to record levels today, with the Dow as the sole index to close at an all-time-high. The market overall was fueled by optimism on Q3 earnings results and trade discussions between the US and China which may bring forth a trade agreement this month.
China is pushing President Trump to remove more tariffs--around $125 billion worth--on Chinese goods as part of the agreement. So far, it appears that a phase one trade deal may be on track.
The September international trade report came in measuring -$5,25 billion, a trade gap that matched consensus expectations--one showing little change in contraction for both imports and exports since last August.
The JOLTS report came in at 7.024 million, indicating that hiring has been on pace although job openings are on a slight decline having fallen 3.8% in September and down 5.0% from September last year.
On the corporate earnings front, 75% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported topped analyst expectations with better-than-expected results.
The Dow ended the day up 30.52 points, advancing 0.1% to a record-high closing of 27,492.63. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 3,047.67. The Nasdaq closed at 8,434.68, virtually unchanged.
Wednesday - November 6
Stocks indexes bounced within a range as a strong Q3 earnings season gave way to yet more trade deal uncertainties.
Stocks hit a low mid-day but bounced back as investors digest news that President Trump or Chinese President Xi will not be signing a phase one deal in November, pushing the potential deal back to December.
The US non-farm productivity report came in at -0.3$, indicating that workers hours had increased while their resulting output lagged. This potentially contributed to the rise in unit labor costs which came in at a higher-than-expected rate of 3.6% in Q3 (analysts were estimating an increase of only 2.2%).
So far, 75% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 earnings have topped analyst expectations.
The Dow Jones closed at 27,492.56, giving back only 7 points from its record-high close yesterday. The S&P 500 closed at 3,076.77, remaining almost unchanged from the sessions open. The Nasdaq fell 0.3%, owing a portion of its decline to the underperformance of a few tech behemoths, namely Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft.
Thursday - November 7
Headline risk worked in favor of the markets today as investors cast off safety in bonds to pile on risk in equities following reports that the US and China have agreed to gradually roll back some of the existing tariff load.
Chinas Commerce Ministry spokesperson also said that both sides are getting closer to a phase one trade agreement.
The Dow had a dramatic 150-point surge while the yield on the 10-year saw its largest move up since November 2015.
Jobless claims in the week ending November 2 declined by 8,000 to a lower-than-anticipated 211,000. Economists had expected 215,000, a figure closer to its 4-week moving average.
The consumer credit numbers for September came in at $9.5 billion, far below the anticipated increase of $15 billion.
The Dow closed at 27,674.80, having climbed 182.24 points or 0.7%. The S&P 500 moved up 0.3% to close higher at 3,085.18. The Nasdaq closed higher at 8,434.52, or 0.3% pulling back from its intraday record high of 8,483.15.
Friday - November 8
If the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq surged to new record highs yesterday on US-China trade optimism, then all three pulled back today as that optimism waned. Thats the thing about headline risk driving market sentiment--one can take you up as easily as another can take you down.
So what happened? Yesterday, a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said that the US had agreed it begin rolling back existing tariffs. A US official confirmed something of the like in a separate announcement. This was enough to fuel market sentiment, and headline volatility worked in favor of the bulls.
But this morning, President Trump said that he did not agree to roll back existing tariffs. And thats when stocks hit their lowest intraday moment, recovering a few hours later to hover just below their opening range.
Alls not entirely bad, however, as all indexes are up for the week--1.1% for the Dow, 0.6% for the S&P 500, and 0.8% for the Nasdaq. The Dow currently stands with three consecutive weekly gains, the S&P sees a winning streak of five, and the Nasdaq tops it all with six.
On another front, the consumer sentiment index came in at a favorable 95.7 for November, slightly below consensus estimates of 96 but within consensus range of 94.5 to 97.5.
Overall, stocks ended on a flatline, with the Dow and S&P 500 currently down -0.1%, with the Nasdaq advancing 0.3%. (Article written mid-day).