Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed as much as 2 1/4 cents higher for Dec futures, but gains fade out as other contracts were only fractionally higher on Cyber Monday. The USDA released the weekly Crop Progress report, showing that corn harvest has improved to 89% completion through the week ending December 1st. The 4 year average for this time is 98% completion. Last week’s report showed a harvest percent of 84%. Weekly corn Export Inspections revealed 428,856 MT shipped for the week ending 11/28. That is a 30.38% drop vs. last week and is less than half of the same week last year’s shipments. The accumulated MY shipments are now 6.039 MMT; as compare to last year where we were 14.230 MMT shipped at this point in the MY. Sorghum exports continue to outpace last year, with the latest export inspection showing accumulated shipments are 65.63% above last year’s pace. The delayed CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday 11/26, managed money was still net short corn futures, with the position becoming less short by 7,458 contracts wk/wk.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.82, up 3/4 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 3/4 cent

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures were down by as much as 6 1/4 cents after Monday trading. Soybean meal was $0.40/ton higher, and bean oil was down by 48 points. The CAIR Grain Crushing monthly report showed that October bean usage was up mo/mo to 187.165 mbu. That was the highest oilseed crush for a single month going back to May of 2015, with the previous record being December of last year with 18.757 mbu. Crude bean oil on hand by the last Saturday of October was 71.360 million lbs. above September. USDA’s weekly update indicated soybean harvest is now 96% completed. The report showed soybean harvest progressed 2 percentage points wk/wk. The USDA’s weekly export inspections showed that, for the week ending 11/28, there were 1.548 MMT of beans shipped. Last week was 1.952 MMT, and the same week last year saw only 1.046 MMT shipped. China was the destination for 1.090 MMT (70.46%). The accumulated shipments were updated to 15.942 MMT vs. 13.258 MMT at this point last year. The Commitment of Traders report from this afternoon revealed that managed money had flipped positions and were net short soybean futures as of 11/26. That was the first Tuesday in which managed money had been net short since Oct. 1st. The big spec funds were also net short Bean meal, strengthening the position by another 12,748 contracts wk/wk. Managed money types were still net long Bean oil per CFTC, with managed money staying net long for 11 straight weeks.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/4, down 6 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.13 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $291.30, up $0.40,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.96, down $0.46

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures were lower on Cyber Monday. Nearby CHI wheat was 4 1/4 cents lower out of the weekend, KC wheat futures fell by 1 1/2 cents in nearby Dec, and MPLS wheat was down by 5 after the trades settled. The last trading day for Dec futures is Friday the 13th. Wheat Export Inspections dropped to 246,988 MT for the week ending 11/28, which was 48.8% below the same week last year. HRS wheat accounted for 59,082 (24.14%); HRW, which was the most, accounted for 126,393 MT (51.63%), SRW was 17,591 (7.19%). The accumulated wheat shipments are up to 12.615, which is 19.21% above last year’s pace. ABARES cut Australian wheat production for 19/20 by 18% to 15.85 MMT. EU official exports or the local MY (starting July 1) show 11.1 MMT of wheat shipped, a 58% increase yr/yr so far. Egypt has issued an international tender for wheat, with delivery late Jan 2020. The day delayed CFTC report showed that managed money had again flipped positions and reverted back to net long for CBOT wheat futures. This being the 4th consecutive week in which they flipped positions on net. For KC wheat they added another week to the 48 consecutive net short weeks for KC wheat futures. The position did shrink by 9,268 contracts wk/wk. MPLS wheat futures also saw the net short position held by managed money spec funds continue. The Short was strengthened by 6,591 contracts wk/wk and brought the net short streak to 64 consecutive weeks.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.43 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.37 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, down 5 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down by as much as 45 cents, with front month futures lower by 15 to 45 cents. Feeder cattle futures were mostly steady, with Jan futures showing a 12 cent loss. The 11/29 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 35 cents at $144.97. The USDA’s weekly comprehensive beef cutout value had the carcass cutout at $230.34, which was $3.72 below last week’s, with 5,648 loads, a wk/wk reduction of 1,587. Afternoon boxed beef prices for Monday were higher, but narrowed the Chc/Sel spread. Choice boxes were $0.49 higher, and select boxes were up by $2.64. Cash cattle activity was light on Monday, with the USDA reporting some 80% choice dressed sales of $187.00. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter to start the week with 117,000 head. They revised Saturday’s estimate to 95,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $120.750, down $0.450,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.800, down $0.400,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.225, down $0.150,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.150, down $0.125

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.025, unch,

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.975, unch,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were down by as much as $2.25, with all contracts posting triple digit losses. The 11/27 CME Lean Hog Index was $58.35 after a drop of 25 cents. 11/29 CME Fresh Bacon Index was at $139.58 following a 14.31% weekly drop. The CFTC showed that funds were net short lean hog futures for the first time since March 3rd. Managed money was 860 contracts net short as of 11/26. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was higher on Cyber Monday, with a $1.01 gain up to $82.86. Rib cuts were the biggest movers, having gained $7.81. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/02 was 77 cents higher at $43.57. According to EuroStat, September pork exports from the EU were 37% higher yr/yr, riding on a monthly boom of exports to China, with UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stating that Chinese pork purchases through September had more than doubled over last year and accounted for 58.5% of the of EU’s monthly pork exports. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter to start the week with a new record of 497,000 head, beating the previous daily slaughter record set from Tuesday the 19th of Nov (494k head). They also revised the holiday shortened week to 2.333 million head.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $60.350, down $1.675,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $66.150, down $2.025

APR 20 Hogs closed at $72.575, down $1.350

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are made a 12 point gain in the Dec contracts, however the other front months were lower by 14 to 50 points. The monthly Cotton System utilization report from NASS, showed that 1,283 running bales of cotton were consumed through October. That comes as an increase of 1.6% over last month, and a 26.4% drop from the October 2018. The 5-year average, including this year, has been updated to 1,995.8 RB for the month. The yearly average is now 1,636.3 RBs, which would be the lowest yearly average in 5 years. The report showed October stocks out ahead of September, but 18.08% behind October of ’18, at 2,845 RB. Cotton harvest, per the USDA weekly crop progress report, is now 83% completed. The four year average for the week ending 12-01 is 81%, and last year harvest was 74% complete through the same point. LA has been reported to be 100% complete with AR and MS closely behind at 97 and 99% respectively. The 11/29 Cotlook A Index was brought to an even 75 cents per pound, after a slight 10 point drop. . The AWP from Friday was 56.20 cents /lb, and is good through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.52, up 12 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 64.86, down 50 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.96, down 43 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.88, down 14 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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